All the info you need on the Southwest Regional tournament

I spent six hours today working on a predictions column on www.tribdem.com.
I tried to look at results for each of the wrestlers and balance that out with past performances by individuals and teams. I also took my personal experiences into account, so it probably skews more heavily toward the guys I saw on a regular basis. Oh, and after going pretty close to the seedings in the lower weights, I probably got a little too crazy in terms of upsets in the upper weights.
I didn't do projections for a team champion, but I did a little calculating for the blog and came up with the following:

• Berlin Brothersvalley and Chestnut Ridge each have six state qualifiers according to my projections (that's when realized I might have leaned too heavily on guys that I saw in person).
• Derry, Jefferson-Morgan, South Fayette and Westmont Hilltop each have four qualifiers.
• Jefferson-Morgan led the way with three finalists.
• Only one team had two champions and that team probably won't figure into the team race.

Mark Dugan of Off the Mat made picks which appear alongside mine in The Tribune-Democrat. Joe Tuscano of the (Washington) Observer-Reporter picks the top three finishers at each weight on his blog. Ryan Spring said on his blog that he will have picks in Friday's Bedford Gazette, and I assume that Todd Irwin will have picks in the Altoona Mirror.

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One the line(s): In case you haven't seen the brackets yet (where have you been?) here's a link to them. 

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Live updates and chat: I plan to do a live chat similar to what I did last week for the District 5 tournament on The Tribune-Democrat website for both days of the regional tournament. Even if  you can get the live results elsewhere, I'd appreciate it if you can stop by and say hi, as the hits on our website help others at the newspaper see how important the wrestling community is to our coverage.

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The schedule: Here's the schedule that the media was given: 

Friday

• 4: 15 p.m. Doors open to public
• 5 p.m. Opening round on five mats
• 7:30 p.m. Quarterfinals on three mats; consolations on two mats

Saturday

• 9:15 a.m. Doors open to public
• 10 a.m. Second-round consolations on five  mats
• 11:30 a.m. Semifinals and third-round consolations on five mats
• 1:30 p.m. Fourth-round consolations on five mats
• 4:45 p.m. Parade of champions
• 5 p.m. Consolation finals and finals on three mats

It doesn't say as much, but I'd assume that the gym will be emptied after the fourth-round consolations.
Ticket prices are $3 for students for first and second sessions and $4 for finals; adults are $4 for first and second sessions and $6 for finals. All-session passes are available, although there is no discount, so it's $10 for students and $20 for adults.

Breaking down the Southwest Regional brackets

The brackets are now posted here. This is the first year that the tournament has expanded to 15 wrestlers at each weight, with District 7 getting 7, District 6 getting 5 (back up from the past few years) and District 5 getting 3.
A few Knotes:

• Collin Glorioso of Huntingdon, who is No. 5 in the PA Power rankings, is the top seed at 120 pounds. His reward? A likely semifinal matchup with No. 4 Austin McDermitt of Burgettstown. Of course, the bottom half of the bracket is no picnic either, with No. 9 Brendan Howard of Jefferson-Morgan, who beat McDermitt in the District 7 finals, No. 12 Justin McCoy of Chestnut Ridge and No. 15 Carnell Andrews of Westmont Hilltop. McCoy and Andrews could meet in the quarters.
• 126 has a pair of top-ranked wrestlers. PA Power has Bedford's Jon Gabriel, who is the top seed and draws the bye, at No. 1 while Off the Mat prefers Triston Law of Forest Hills, who is the second seed and has a first-round match. Law is third in the PA Power rankings while Gabriel is fourth according to OTM.
• I know that no seeding formula is perfect, but you have to wonder about 145, where No. 3 seed Robby Patrick is ranked second in the state by PA Power. Patrick has beaten No. 1 seed Gio Vonne Sanders of Jeannette twice and owns a win over Travis Templeton of Forest Hills, who beat No. 2 seed Austin Hemminger of Somerset. Of course, the Ligonier Valley freshman could have helped himself if he didn't have earlier losses to Austin Mears of Mount Pleasant and Isaac Stewart of Marion Center, both of whom are in the weight. Still, with 13 consecutive wins, Patrick looks like the favorite to me.
• 152 has Nos. 2, 3 and 4 in the PA Power rankings. South Park's Jake Wentzel is No. 2 and top-seeded and is followed by Huntingdon's Jacob Oliver and Chestnut Ridge's Trent Crouse in both the rankings and seeds.
• 160 is loaded, with half of the state's top 10 wrestlers in the region, according to PA Power. The top half of the bracket has No. 1 Jared Walker of South Fayette, No. 5 Anthony Walters of Westmont Hilltop and No. 10 Jon Wagner of Huntingdon, who Walker could face after his first-round bye. The bottom half has No. 3 Drew Doak of Blairsville, No. 6 Bryce Fochtman of Berlin Brothersvalley and No. 9 Jason Stay of Beth-Center, who could meet Fochtman in the quarters.
• 170 includes Nos. 2, 4, 5 and 8 according to PA Power with Levi Niebauer of Cambria Heights, Anthony Welsh of Beth-Center, Taylor Cahill of Berlin and Greg Bulsak of South Park. Personally, I'd list Bulsak as the favorite.
• Seven of the top 13 220-pounders in the state are going to be in Canonsburg this weekend, according to PA Power, so someone pretty good will be sitting home. Buzzy Maines of West Branch is No. 1 while Jacob Robb of Kittanning, so the final could be a very good one, assuming they both get there. Robb could have to face No. 7 Tyler Oliver of United in the quarters and No. 6 Josiah Jones of Westmont Hilltop in the semis. Maines, meanwhile, could have No. 10 Tom Sever of Yough in the quarters and No. 11 Seth Hitchens of South Allegheny in the semis. Those scenarios don't even include No. 13 Mike Sinclair of Ellwood City - who Jones will face in the first round - or No. 20 Ty Smith of Meyersdale, who is the District 5 champ.
• 285 has five of the top 12 ranked wrestlers according to PA Power ... and those are just the WPIAL guys. District 6 champ Andrew Deitman of United is the only other ranked wrestler, and he comes in at No. 25. Southern Huntingdon's Nick Winfield and Berlin Brothersvalley's Anthony Collins each had honorable mention status, but the rankings certainly make it look like District 7 could dominate here, especially at the top, with No. 1 Al Beattie of Burrell and No. 2 Jacob Beistel of Southmoreland.

Update - Breaking news: SW regional tournament will not be held at IUP or Johnstown

I covered this more extensively for The Tribune-Democrat, including thoughts from some coaches. I also found some good news for the area, as the PJW Junior High Championships will be coming to the region next year.


Update: I spoke with Tom Grenell, general manager of the War Memorial, and Dr. Robert Lombardi, executive director of the PIAA. Both said they are open to the tournament returning to Johnstown in 2016.

I received an email Tuesday from Frank Vulcano at Canon-McMillan High School saying that the Southwest Class AA Tournament will be held there. Here is the release from the PIAA. (And,yes, they screwed up the date of the release, putting February instead of January.):

PIAA Southwest AA Regional Wrestling Tournament to be hosted by Canon-McMillan HS – February 27 & 28, 2015  
Mechanicsburg, PA., (February 13, 2015) - The Pennsylvania Interscholastic Athletic Association, Inc. (PIAA) announced this afternoon due to the inability to secure the annual regional wrestling weekend dates of February 27 & 28, 2015, PIAA has moved the Southwest AA Regional Wrestling Tournament to Canon-McMillan High School in Canonsburg, PA. 
Previously, the tournament has been held at the War Memorial Arena, Johnstown, PA, but due to a week-long commitment in their schedule, the War Memorial was unable to host this year. The SW AA Regional Wrestling Tournament encompasses 15 wrestlers per weight class with wrestlers representing schools located in PIAA Districts V, VI and VII. 
PIAA Executive Director, Dr. Robert A. Lombardi stated, “PIAA is very appreciative of CanonMcMillan High School and Athletic Director, Frank Vulcano, Jr., to be able to host this year’s regional. We all believe it is important to host this regional on dates and times that wrestlers’ families and their school communities can attend without disrupting the teams, the school day or personal work schedules. Canon-McMillan’s ability to host on Friday and Saturday solved a major concern for all of us in the wrestling community. We are grateful to Athletic Director, Frank Vulcano, Jr., and his leadership at Canon-McMillan. We know he and his school will host an outstanding event. 
The SW AA Regional Wrestling Tournament tentative time schedule is attached with various informational items for schools and the wrestling community.   PIAA contact: Dr. Robert A. Lombardi, Executive Director 

The worst-kept secret in the wrestling world was that the regional tournament would not be held in Johnstown this year due to a conflict with Disney on Ice shows, which cannot be rescheduled and, frankly, are far more lucrative than the wrestling tournament.
Most rumors had the tournament moving to IUP this year but that was a problem because IUP could be hosting the college basketball tournament that weekend, which would have forced the tournament to a Thursday-Friday schedule.
The good news with this switch is that it's back to a Friday-Saturday format that is much better for fans. The bad news is that it's back to the Washington area, which is where the tournament was for years when it was just districts 5 and 7. With District 6 in the mix, Indiana and Johnstown are much more centrally located.
Vulcano and Canon-Mac do a great job with the POWERade Tournament, so I have no doubt that the tournament will be expertly run. My concern is that the tournament is not centrally located and, given the power that the WPIAL has, it could be in their neck of the woods for the foreseeable future.
I was encouraged by my conversation with Dr. Lombardi, so hopefully it will return to Johnstown next year.