Previewing Friday's big Berlin-Ridge match

Sure, we're only three days into 2014, but Friday's match between Berlin Brothersvalley and Chestnut Ridge is the match of the year in our area. I think most would agree that they're the top dual-meet teams in District 5 and would likely give the top teams in District 6 some problems.
The teams met twice last season with the Lions winning both the regular-season and District 5 duals matchups. While there have obviously been a number of lineup changes since then, we can take some insight from looking back at those matches.

Regular season (Jan. 17)

Chestnut Ridge 43, Berlin Brothersvalley 19

132-Trent Crouse, CR, dec. Chris Miller, 11-7.
138-Braden Fochtman, BB, maj. dec. Colby Hillegass, 16-3.
145-Jerimiah Zimmerman, CR, dec. Eric Darr, 4-3.
152-Blake Miller, BB, pinned Kyle Winegardner, 3:41.
160-Bryce Fochtman, BB, dec. Conner Buttry, 2-0.
170-Bradie Bollman, CR, maj. dec. Trevor Moore, 9-0.
182-Tyler Dibert, CR, pinned Shane Pepper, 2:52.
195-Brad Winegardner, CR, dec. Stew Trulick, 6-4.
220-Dan Albright, CR, dec. Mitchell Walker, 4-3 (OT).
285-Austin Buttry, CR, pinned Anthony Collins, 1:59.
106-Aaron Burkett, CR, pinned Emil Kiesnowski, :25.
113-Blake Dunlap, CR, dec. Tommy DeArmitt, 8-2.
120-Joey Swank, BB, pinned Sam Shank, 5:02.
126-Derrick Claar, CR, pinned E.J. Custer, 3:49.

District 5 Duals Semifinal (Feb. 2)
Chestnut Ridge 45, Berlin Brothersvalley 20

132-Chris Miller, BB, maj. dec. Colby Hillegass, 14-1.

138-Braden Fochtman, BB, maj. dec. Dustin Bence, 11-3.

145-Eric Darr, BB, dec. Jerimiah Zimmerman, 5-0.

152-Blake Miller, BB, dec. Kyle Winegardner, 6-4.

160-Bryce Fochtman, BB, dec. Conner Buttry, 5-3.

170-Bradie Bollman, CR, pinned Trevor Moore, :57.

182-Tyler Dibert, CR, pinned Shane Pepper, 1:15.

195-Brad Winegardner, CR, forfeit.

220-Dan Albright, CR, dec. Mitchell Walker, 3-2.

285-Austin Buttry, CR, pinned Anthony Collins,1:49.

106-Aaron Burkett, CR, pinned Emil Kiesnowski, 1;25.

113-Sam Shank, CR, pinned Tommy DeArmitt, 5:24.

120-Joe Swank, BB, dec. Derrick Claar, 4-3.

126-Trent Crouse, CR, pinned E.J. Custer, 3:07.

And now we'll look ahead to the probable lineups for Friday's dual, which is at Chestnut Ridge at approximately 7 p.m. Predictions are always tricky, as it's impossible to tell which matchups will actually take place. The teams have not had any common dual-meet opponents this season and few of the wrestlers have common opponents. Throw in the fact that wrestlers could be dropping in weight and the that both teams had wrestlers out sick last week, and it's anyone's guess how it will actually play out.
Chestnut Ridge has faced a much more difficult schedule, especially for those who took part in the POWERade tournament last weekend. For some reason, Berlin's records on the NWCA links don't reflect the results from the Redbank Valley tournament, even though the results were entered. I think I got them right in my list.
With that being said, here's how I have it:

106

Kyle Boyce (5-5) vs. Aaron Burkett (11-2) 

Analysis: Boyce is a freshman who has a decent win under his belt with a 1-0 decision over North Star senior Lenny Beeman at the WestPAC tournament, but I'm not sure he has the experience to hang with Burkett, a sophomore who was a District 5 runner-up last season and finished one victory shy of making it to states.
Prediction: Burkett by fall. 6-0 Chestnut Ridge. 

113

Tommy DeArmitt (11-2) vs. Blake Dunlap (4-2)

Analysis: These two met twice last year, with Dunlap winning 8-2 in the dual and then by fall in the district tournament. DeArmitt has been wrestling well, but Dunlap was a District 5 runner-up last year and has the edge in personal history.
Prediction: Dunlap by decision. 9-0 Chestnut Ridge.
 

120

Joe Swank (9-2) vs. Luke Hobson (4-4)

Analysis: Hobson is a junior who has had trouble breaking into the Chestnut Ridge lineup over the years and, when he has, he often seems to draw a difficult matchup. That's the case here with Swank, a sophomore who should contend for a district title and a spot in Hershey this season.
Prediction: Swank by fall. 9-6 Chestnut Ridge.

126

E.J. Custer (3-3) vs. Dustin Ickes (4-6)

Analysis: This one looks like a toss-up. Custer is a senior who has won 24 matches each of the past two seasons but has nothing to show for it in the postseason. Ickes doesn't have that kind of experience, but was impressive the only time I've seen him this year, in a 2-1 loss to Bedford's Jake Warren.

Prediction: I'll go with the experience of Custer in a close one. Tie 9-9.

132

Kane McKenzie (9-6) vs. Sam Shank (6-5) 

Analysis: This is another toss-up in my mind. I don't claim to be completely impartial here, as McKenzie is my nephew. A junior making his varsity debut after missing all of last season with an injury, he wrestled in the national freestyle tournament in Fargo, N.D., last summer and bumped Custer out of the lineup. Shank is much more experienced with more than 100 varsity matches under his belt.

Prediction: It won't make me popular at family gatherings, but I'll go with Shank's experience in a decision. Chestnut Ridge 12-9.

138

Storm McDonald (8-6) vs. Derrick Claar (10-3) 

Analysis: Claar is a proven commodity, with a 2012 district title and two regional appearances on his resume. McDonald is a sophomore with much less experience.

Prediction: Claar by fall. Chestnut Ridge 18-9.

145

Braden Fochtman (15-2) vs. Colby Hillegass (6-4)

Analysis: This is another rematch from last year's regular-season dual, as Fochtman scored a major decision over Hillegass. Fochtman was a state qualifier last year and should be a big favorite, but only four of his 15 wins have come by fall.

Prediction: Fochtman by major decision. Chestnut Ridge 18-13.

152

Taylor Cahill (10-1) vs. Trent Crouse (10-2) 

Analysis: If it happens, this will be the highlight match of the night. Both were district runners-up last year, Crouse at 126 and Cahill at 152 for Conemaugh Township. Crouse is 8-0 at 160 this season, so despite the big jump in weight from last year, Cahill's strength shouldn't be anything new to him. This match alone should be worth the price of admission.
Prediction: It should be an interesting contrast in styles, with Cahill's big-move capability versus Crouse's grinder mentality. I'll take Cahill in a close one. Chestnut Ridge 18-16.

160

Bryce Fochtman (12-2) vs. Brandyn Beaver (5-3)

Analysis: I don't know much about Beaver, a sophomore, but he'll have his hands full with Fochtman, a junior who won a district title last year and made it to states. Like his younger brother, Fochtman doesn't pile up pins, which could hurt Berlin.
Prediction: Fochtman by major decision. Berlin 20-18

170

Trevor Moore (7-3) vs. Ben Clark (2-5)

Analysis: Neither of these are marquee names, but the result here could go a long way toward determining the outcome of the dual. They do have a common opponent in North Star's Dillion Charlton, but both were pinned by the Cougar, so it's hard to take much from that. Clark is older, but Moore won 13 matches last year compared to just four for Clark. Five of Moore's seven wins on the mat (minus a forfeit) have come by fall.
Prediction: I'll go out on a bit of a limb here and call for Moore to get a pin. Berlin 26-18

182

Shane Pepper (11-3) vs. Kyle Winegardner (8-3)

Analysis: Things could get interesting here, as both Winegardner and Conner Buttry have wrestled 182 for Chestnut Ridge. I'd think coach Greg Lazor will like his chances better of getting two wins if he goes with Winegardner at 182 and Buttry at 195. There's a common opponent here, as Winegardner beat North Star's Hunter Connor 4-2 while Connor pinned Pepper.

Prediction: Winegardner by decision. Berlin 26-21

195

Toby Cahill (10-3) vs. Conner Buttry (10-3)

Analysis: Like his older brother at 152, Toby Cahill could be in one of the marquee matchups. After going 17-17 as a freshman, Conner Buttry has taken a big step forward on his surgically repaired knee. Cahill is an impressive freshman whose only losses have come to studs Jared Beckwith of Tyrone and Gavin Berkley of Meyersdale (twice). While they don't have any common opponents, one of Buttry's losses was to Towanda's Dakota Manning, who lost to Daniel Dillon of Canandaigua (N.Y.) Academy. Cahill beat Dillon twice at the Sheetz Holiday Classic.

Prediction: Cahill by decision. Berlin 29-21

220

Stew Trulick (8-2) vs. Jon Heming (3-5)

Analysis: Both of these wrestlers sat out last weekend due to illness. Assuming they are both back and healthy, Trulick - who won 29 matches last season - should be the favorite against Heming, a junior who is seeing his first significant action this year.
Prediction: Trulick by fall. Berlin 35-21

285

Anthony Collins (10-3) vs. Austin Buttry (12-1

Analysis: Collins might be the most improved wrestler on Berlin's team this season, but it probably won't matter against Buttry who is coming off a third-place performance at the POWERade tournament.

Prediction: Buttry by fall. Berlin 35-27

Final predicted score: Berlin 35, Chestnut Ridge 27

So, where did I go wrong? I'm sure there are plenty of opinions out there about how this one will go, both in terms of what matchups we'll get and the outcomes of those matches. Leave a comment with your prediction and we'll see who gets the closest.